Search for: All records

Remotely sensed hydrologic variables, in conjunction with streamflow data, have been increasingly used to conduct multivariable calibration of hydrologic model parameters. Here, we calibrated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using different combinations of streamflow and remotely sensed hydrologic variables, including Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) Evapotranspiration (ET), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET, and Soil MERGE (SMERGE) soil moisture. The results show that adding remotely sensed ET and soil moisture to the traditionally used streamflow for model calibration can impact the number and values of parameters sensitive to hydrologic modeling, but it does not necessarily improve the model performance. However, using remotely sensed ET or soil moisture data alone led to deterioration in model performance as compared with using streamflow only. In addition, we observed large discrepancies between ALEXI or MODIS ET data and the choice between these two datasets for model calibration can have significant implications for the performance of the SWAT model. The use of different combinations of streamflow, ET, and soil moisture data also resulted in noticeable differences in simulated hydrologic processes, such as runoff, percolation, and groundwater discharge. Finally, we compared the performance of SWAT and the SWAT-Carbon (SWAT-C) model under different multivariate calibration setups, and these two models exhibited pronounced differences in their performance in the validation period. Based on these results, we recommend (1) the assessment of various remotely sensed data (when multiple options available) for model calibration before choosing them for complementing the traditionally used streamflow data and (2) that different model structures be considered in the model calibration process to support robust hydrologic modeling. 

Abstract Probabilistic forecasts of changes in soil moisture and an Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) on sub-seasonal time scales over the contiguous U.S. are developed. The forecasts use the current land surface conditions and numerical weather prediction forecasts from the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project. Changes in soil moisture are quite predictable 8-14 days in advance with 50% or more of the variance explained over the majority of the contiguous U.S.; however, changes in ESI are significantly less predictable. A simple red noise model of predictability shows that the spatial variations in forecast skill are primarily a result of variations in the autocorrelation, or persistence, of the predicted variable, especially for the ESI. The difference in overall skill between soil moisture and ESI, on the other hand, is due to the greater soil moisture predictability by the numerical model forecasts. As the forecast lead time increases from 8-14 days to 15-28 days, however, the autocorrelation dominates the soil moisture and ESI differences as well. An analysis of modelled transpiration, and bare soil and canopy water evaporation contributions to total evaporation, suggests improvements to the ESI forecasts can be achieved by estimating the relative contributions of these components to the initial ESI state. The importance of probabilistic forecasts for reproducing the correct probability of anomaly intensification is also shown. 

Abstract Recent years have seen growing appreciation that rapidly intensifying flash droughts are significant climate hazards with major economic and ecological impacts. This has motivated efforts to inventory, monitor, and forecast flash drought events. Here we consider the question of whether the term “flash drought” comprises multiple distinct classes of event, which would imply that understanding and forecasting flash droughts might require more than one framework. To do this, we first extend and evaluate a soil moisture volatility–based flash drought definition that we introduced in previous work and use it to inventory the onset dates and severity of flash droughts across the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1979–2018. Using this inventory, we examine meteorological and land surface conditions associated with flash drought onset and recovery. These same meteorological and land surface conditions are then used to classify the flash droughts based on precursor conditions that may represent predictable drivers of the event. We find that distinct classes of flash drought can be diagnosed in the event inventory. Specifically, we describe three classes of flash drought: “dry and demanding” events for which antecedent evaporative demand is high and soil moisture is low, “evaporative” events with more modest antecedent evaporative demand and soil moisture anomalies, but positive antecedent evaporative anomalies, and “stealth” flash droughts, which are different from the other two classes in that precursor meteorological anomalies are modest relative to the other classes. The three classes exhibit somewhat different geographic and seasonal distributions. We conclude that soil moisture flash droughts are indeed a composite of distinct types of rapidly intensifying droughts, and that flash drought analyses and forecasts would benefit from approaches that recognize the existence of multiple phenomenological pathways. 

Abstract. The term “flash drought” is frequently invoked to describe droughts thatdevelop rapidly over a relatively short timescale. Despite extensive andgrowing research on flash drought processes, predictability, and trends,there is still no standard quantitative definition that encompasses allflash drought characteristics and pathways. Instead, diverse definitionshave been proposed, supporting wide-ranging studies of flash drought butcreating the potential for confusion as to what the term means and how tocharacterize it. Use of different definitions might also lead to differentconclusions regarding flash drought frequency, predictability, and trendsunder climate change. In this study, we compared five previously publisheddefinitions, a newly proposed definition, and an operational satellite-baseddrought monitoring product to clarify conceptual differences and toinvestigate the sensitivity of flash drought inventories and trends to thechoice of definition. Our analyses indicate that the newly introduced SoilMoisture Volatility Index definition effectively captures flash droughtonset in both humid and semi-arid regions. Analyses also showed thatestimates of flash drought frequency, spatial distribution, and seasonalityvary across the contiguous United States depending upon which definition is used.Definitions differ in their representation of some of the largest and mostwidely studied flash droughts of recent years. Trend analysis indicates thatdefinitions that include air temperature show significant increases in flashdroughts over the past 40 years, but few trends are evident fordefinitions based on other surface conditions or fluxes. These resultsindicate that “flash drought” is a composite term that includes severaltypes of events and that clarity in definition is critical when monitoring,forecasting, or projecting the drought phenomenon. 

Flash droughts are characterized by a period of rapid intensification over sub-seasonal time scales that culminates in the rapid emergence of new or worsening drought impacts. This study presents a new flash drought intensity index (FDII) that accounts for both the unusually rapid rate of drought intensification and its resultant severity. The FDII framework advances our ability to characterize flash drought because it provides a more complete measure of flash drought intensity than existing classification methods that only consider the rate of intensification. The FDII is computed using two terms measuring the maximum rate of intensification (FD_INT) and average drought severity (DRO_SEV). A climatological analysis using soil moisture data from the Noah land surface model from 1979–2017 revealed large regional and interannual variability in the spatial extent and intensity of soil moisture flash drought across the US. Overall, DRO_SEV is slightly larger over the western and central US where droughts tend to last longer and FD_INT is ~75% larger across the eastern US where soil moisture variability is greater. Comparison of the FD_INT and DRO_SEV terms showed that they are strongly correlated (r = 0.82 to 0.90) at regional scales, which indicates that the subsequent drought severity is closely related to the magnitude of the rapid intensification preceding it. Analysis of the 2012 US flash drought showed that the FDII depiction of severe drought conditions aligned more closely with regions containing poor crop conditions and large yield losses than that captured by the intensification rate component (FD_INT) alone. 

Abstract. Environmental science is increasingly reliant on remotely sensedobservations of the Earth's surface and atmosphere. Observations frompolar-orbiting satellites have long supported investigations on land coverchange, ecosystem productivity, hydrology, climate, the impacts ofdisturbance, and more and are critical for extrapolating (upscaling)ground-based measurements to larger areas. However, the limited temporalfrequency at which polar-orbiting satellites observe the Earth limits ourunderstanding of rapidly evolving ecosystem processes, especially in areaswith frequent cloud cover. Geostationary satellites have observed theEarth's surface and atmosphere at high temporal frequency for decades, andtheir imagers now have spectral resolutions in the visible and near-infrared regions that are comparable to commonly used polar-orbiting sensors like the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), or Landsat. These advances extend applications of geostationary Earth observations from weather monitoring to multiple disciplines in ecology and environmental science. We review a number of existing applications that use data from geostationary platforms and present upcoming opportunities for observing key ecosystem properties using high-frequency observations from the Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABI) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), which routinely observe the Western Hemisphere every 5–15 min. Many of the existing applications in environmental science from ABI are focused on estimating land surface temperature, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, and biomass burning emissions along with detecting rapid drought development and wildfire. Ongoing work in estimating vegetation properties and phenology from other geostationary platforms demonstrates the potential to expand ABI observations to estimate vegetation greenness, moisture, and productivity at a high temporal frequency across the Western Hemisphere. Finally, we present emerging opportunities to address the relatively coarseresolution of ABI observations through multisensor fusion to resolvelandscape heterogeneity and to leverage observations from ABI to study thecarbon cycle and ecosystem function at unprecedented temporal frequency. 

Abstract Groundwater extraction in the United States (US) is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on irrigated agriculture. To improve this understanding, we integrated a gridded crop model with satellite observations, recharge estimates, and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US irrigated agricultural production. The gridded crop model agrees with satellite‐based estimates of evapotranspiration (R² = 0.68), as well as survey data from the United States Department of Agriculture (R² = 0.82–0.94 for county‐level production and 0.37–0.54 for county‐level yield). Using the optimistic assumption that groundwater extraction equals effective aquifer recharge rate, we find that sustainable groundwater use decreases US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using a more conservative assumption of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat decreases by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. The wide range of simulated losses is driven by considerable uncertainty in surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as accounting for the many aspects of sustainability. Our results demonstrate the vulnerability of US irrigated agriculture to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining irrigated food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands. These findings are based on reducing pumping by fallowing irrigated farmland; however, alternate pumping reduction strategies or technological advances in crop genetics and irrigation could produce different results.